The Players Championship is among the hardest events in golf to predict, so instead of trying to just pick one winner, let's attempt to thin the pool from the rest of this monster field. TPC Sawgrass has seen plenty of success producing major-caliber champions, and it sure seems like that will again be the case in 2024.
The last several winners have all been names -- Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Smith, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Webb Simpson -- but other players in the top 10? Well, good luck trying to identify them before the tournament starts. In just the last three editions of this event, the following golfers have finished high up on the leaderboard:
- Tom Hoge
- Anirban Lahiri
- Kevin Kisner
- Charles Howell III
- Jason Kokrak
- Russell Knox
- Harold Varner III
- Doug Ghim
- David Lingmerth
What a collection! Obviously, it's impossible to narrow down a field this size including these types of players. The goal here is trying to pick the winner, which has been a bit easier (at least when it comes to putting them in a nine-player pool).
Let's take a closer look at the nine golfers with the best chance to win this year's edition of The Players. Be sure to check out the Players Championship purse and prize money breakdown, along with CBS Sports' complete Players Championship TV schedule and viewer's guide.
2024 Players Championship predictions, favorites
Odds via SportsLine consensus
| 1 | |
| There are so many ways to describe his greatness, and we have exhausted many of them. He's the best hitter on the planet and maybe the most disciplined great player on the PGA Tour right now, too. Here's one stat that sums it up: Scheffler last over-par round on the PGA Tour came nearly seven months ago. Scheffler may not win this tournament -- a lot of winning is happenstance -- but it would be surprising if the clear favorite didn't at least mix it up atop of the leaderboard at some point this weekend at TPC Sawgrass given how well he's been playing. Odds: 11/2 | |
| 2 | |
| He's had tremendous moments at TPC Sawgrass, including a thrilling win in 2021 in which he shot 64-68 on the weekend to steal a victory. He's also quietly hitting the ball well this year and ranks fourth of everyone in this field in strokes gained over the last 36 rounds. Odds: 18-1 | |
| 3 | |
| Wait ... Sam Burns? Yeah, baby! Sam Burns! Other than a disastrous final round at last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational in which he made two triple bogeys, he's been awesome this year. He's ball-striking it, and he's probably the best putter of the best players still on the PGA Tour. Normally, I wouldn't look at that as a skill one can lean on, but he's shown that, at least for him, it is. Odds: 35-1 | |
| 4 | |
| He's not playing his best golf right now, but it's hard to ignore that T3 and T9 over the last two years at TPC Sawgrass. Hovland has an ability few in this field possess to really put the pedal down when he's feeling it. I don't know that he'll find enough of his game to get into contention over the next few days, but if he does, his odds are going to look like a steal. Odds: 25-1 | |
| 5 | |
| He's been up and down this year, which is fine if you're simply looking at winners. He sandwiched a missed cut at the Genesis Invitational with a win at the Pebble Beach Pro Am and a runner up at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. If he misses the cut here, fine, but his win equity is, ahem, higher than most. Odds: 30-1 | |
| 6 | |
| It would be a good year to apply the 63 that got stolen from him after the first round of the 2020 Players, which was canceled. Matsuyama has been excellent so far this year with four top 25s in his last five starts, including a victory at Riviera. He also has solid good history at TPC Sawgrass beyond that 63 with three top-eight finishes in his last six starts. Odds: 28-1 | |
| 7 | |
| I don't see McIlroy winning because it's not all clicking for him from tee to green right now. However, a couple of things remain true and point toward him potentially having a great week. The first is that he is by far the best off the tee in this field. The second is that the putting seemed to click over the last few rounds of the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week. The third is that he's probably the second best player in a field that's less than what it used to be, and he has a chance -- especially at a place where he's found success -- to win every time he tees it up. Odds: 12-1 | |
| 8 | |
| Non-Scheffler division, he's probably the hottest player on the PGA Tour. Zalatoris is coming into this Players off a T2 at the Genesis Invitational and a T4 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He's gained strokes putting in four consecutive events with the broomstick putter, and his simplified swing (his words) post-back surgery is clearly working. Odds: 22-1 | |
| 9 | |
| Sometimes, it's best to not know what trouble you can get yourself into at TPC Sawgrass. Åberg will be making his first appearance at this tournament, and he's quietly going in with four consecutive top 25 showings on the PGA Tour. He hit it great in all of them except the last (Arnold Palmer Invitational), and while he hasn't yet played here, his caddie (Joe Skovron) was on Rickie Fowler's bag in 2015 when Fowler won. There will be mistakes this week from a lot of players at this tricky track, but I don't think Åberg will make many of them. Odds: 35-1 | |
Who will win The Players Championship, and which long shots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard and best bets, all from the model that's nailed 10 golf majors and is up more than $9,600 since June 2020.
